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Friday, May 1, 2015

Election thoughts

Given that I run a government funded charity, blogging about politics is not wise. It's silly to bite the hand that feeds you. And during an election it's advisable to avoid chomping on the mitt that doesn't currently feed you...

As in just a few weeks the roles might be reversed.

But there have been some spectacularly stupid points that keep getting repeated without challenge in all the media and it's driving me nuts!  And as the representatives of all parties are annoying me almost equally I shall break cover and vent my spleen

1. "Labour broke the economy and the Tories fixed it..."
Piffle!  Labour didn't break the global financial system.  We all did.  Some probably bear more responsibility than others (Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, RBS etc.) but those of us who took on more debt than we could probably afford are about as culpable as those who were in government when the proverbial ordure hit the fan.  In fact it's possible that Gordon Brown did quite a lot to prevent the damage from being any worse.

Does this allow Labour to get off the charge? Well, no because Labour clearly overspent for a period of time without demonstrable benefit in some areas. But that is the problem with left wing governments they tend to overspend, to centralise and to waste.

Equally the Tories shouldn't be allowed to crow about any financial miracle.  Most of the improvement is the, slower than expected, turn of the financial cycle.  But we're far from out of the mess.  What financial recovery there has been has come from low income jobs done by migrants.  Society hasn't improved.  The Tories wanted to make the state smaller anyway; the deficit was simply an excuse.

And the Lib Dems... Well who cares what the Lib Dems think because I don't think even they know at the moment.

But last night Nick Clegg actually parroted the Conservative line that in 2010 the UK was teetering on the brink of Greece style collapse. This sort of misrepresentation ought to be banned.  In 2010 the UK's GDP was 2,208 $US bn while Greece's was 321 $US bn (source).  So our economy was 7 times the size of Greece's.  It is ludicrous to compare the UK debt to the Greek debt in absolute terms. The UK's budget deficit was -11.4% in 2010 and in 2015 it will be -5.7%.  So the coalition is half as crap at balancing the books as it was when it took power.

But I don't blame them either.  I just get really annoyed when they claim credit for things they haven't done and dodge responsibility for things they have done. The economy isn't fixed. It wasn't broken, just depressed, for longer than average.

2. We need to crack down on immigration
No. We don't.

Why? As mentioned above any economic improvement over the last five years has largely been driven by immigrants, population growth and low paid work. Stop immigration and the recovery will come to a grinding halt.  And just because some affable rogue who claims to be anti-establishment in a terrifyingly transparent appeal to the masses tries to frighten shouldn't make this one of the centre pieces of the election.  That some cretin in the Labour party saw fit to approve a coffee mug advocating immigration controls is one of the low points so far.

Lovely article here with real figures on the economic impact of migration

In straightened economic times it is common to find the rise of nationalism.  It's human. We need to find someone to blame... other than ourselves of course.  Think Weimar republic and the rise of Hitler. Think Stalin and the purges. But it is simple posturing.  As Samuel Johnson said, "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel".  But after the stomach churning nonsense on social media on St. George's day last week I'm more inclined to go with Oscar Wilde... "Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious".

3. We need to get out of the EU
Well aside from the fact that the EU has successfully avoided a major war between major powers since 1945 and could be argued to be more successful than any other supra-national institution ever... Feel free to leave.  It will destroy the economy and make us even more inward looking, arrogant and small minded.  The Empire has gone. We are not that important any more.  Get over it.

In the EU but out of the Euro has been almost like winning an economic lottery.  London will not remain the heart of the global finance system because of its geographical location its language and its architecture.

See above finding someone other than yourself to blame for problems...

4. Crime is still an issue
Fear gets more votes than aspiration so this one will probably never go away.  But still there is scaremongering despite crime being at an almost all time low. There was a lovely piece in the news yesterday which I can't find just now about politicians making absurd claims about Justice policy when there was little or no evidence to support their assertions.  And that, apparently, more bobbies on the beat appears to raise the fear of crime...

There are others but those are the ones that really annoy me at the moment.

I feel better already...






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